2025 Predictions Sure to be Wrong - Check in
Below is a mid-year review of the "Predictions Sure to Be Wrong 2025", with each forecast evaluated against the latest available data as of July 14, 2025.
As always, these views are shared in the spirit of humility and a healthy respect for the market’s ability to make fools of us all. We don’t make these calls to shift portfolios dramatically—just to keep the conversation honest and maybe spark a little debate over your morning coffee.
| Prediction | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Energy Will Beat Dirty Energy | Right | Clean energy is only modestly ahead of traditional energy. |
| Consumers Will Not Notice Tariffs | Wrong | Tariffs have raised prices and are being noticed by consumers. |
| US Debt Grows but No One Will Care | Right | Debt is rising, but concern is muted. |
| S&P 500 Will Experience 10 New All-Time Highs | Wrong | 16 new highs set in 2025. |
| Unemployment Will Stay Below 4.5% | Right | Unemployment at 4.1% as of June 2025. |
| Housing Affordability Will Worsen | Right | Affordability index at multi-decade lows. |
Clean Energy vs. Dirty Energy: The Rematch
Remember the first Trump term, when clean energy lapped traditional energy by a country mile? This year, the prediction was for a repeat performance. So far, clean energy (ICLN) is up, but only modestly ahead of traditional energy (XLE). Both sectors are positive, but the “lapping” hasn’t materialized. The race is closer than expected, and the margin is nothing to write home about.
Tariffs: Consumers Are Noticing
The call was that tariffs would be a non-event for consumers. Reality check: tariffs have pushed up prices, especially for clothing, vehicles, and food. The average household is feeling it, with an estimated $2,400 hit to annual income and food prices up 3%. So much for flying under the radar—tariffs are making their presence felt at the checkout line.
US Debt: Still Climbing, Still Shrugged Off
The national debt is ballooning, now flirting with $37 trillion. The prediction? No one would care. And, for the most part, that’s holding true. Economists and policy wonks are sounding alarms, but the public and markets are largely unfazed. The debt clock keeps spinning, but the world keeps turning.
S&P 500: New Highs, Again and Again
Forecasting a ceiling of 10 new all-time highs for the S&P 500 sounded bold, but we came in knowing there would be tariffs and US debt issues. As of July, the index has already set 16 new closing records, with the latest at 6,280.46. The market’s resilience continues to surprise, even as volatility creeps back toward historical norms.
Unemployment: Below 4.5% and Holding
The labor market remains a bright spot. Unemployment has hovered between 4.0% and 4.2% since last year, with the latest reading at 4.1%. Despite headlines about layoffs and job market cooling, the numbers show a stable, healthy employment picture.
Housing Affordability: Still in Crisis
No surprise here—housing affordability has worsened. The Housing Affordability Index dropped to 97.2 in May, a multi-decade low. About three-quarters of US households can’t afford a median-priced new home. With supply tight and mortgage rates stubbornly high, relief isn’t on the horizon.
As always, these predictions are made with a dose of skepticism and a reminder that markets have a way of humbling even the most confident forecasters. Stay diversified, stay curious, and don’t bet the farm on anyone’s crystal ball—ours included.
DISCLOSURES:
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.
The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.
This document is for your private and confidential use only and not intended for broad usage or dissemination.
No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. All investments include a risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. The principal risks of CWA strategies are disclosed in the publicly available Form ADV Part 2A.
Index returns are unmanaged and do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses. Index returns reflect all items of income, gain and loss and the reinvestment of dividends and other income. You cannot invest directly in an Index.
Past performance shown is not indicative of future results, which could differ substantially.
Consilio Wealth Advisors, LLC (“CWA”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where CWA and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.
